Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -0.8% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.40% | 7.80% | -2.86% | 4.78% | -5.14% | 16.06% | 10.99% | -1.01% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.24% | 3.55% | 4.50% | -4.19% | 5.79% | -3.62% | 0.96% | 0.59% | 5.50% | -10.78% | 11.21% | -1.81% |
| 2024 | 10.91% | 2.75% | 9.09% | -1.71% | -0.94% | -4.69% | 7.18% | 10.96% | 0.38% | -1.65% | 11.68% | -7.04% |
| 2023 | -5.26% | 0.92% | -13.95% | 4.47% | -6.31% | 1.38% | 3.34% | -3.52% | 3.34% | 15.01% | 8.31% | 1.53% |
| 2022 | 2.57% | 2.12% | 13.20% | -8.64% | 8.02% | -6.70% | -7.70% | 3.73% | 3.34% | 1.38% | 6.74% | 1.27% |
| 2021 | -2.50% | -0.54% | 8.58% | 10.36% | 7.74% | -3.95% | -0.30% | 4.64% | -5.89% | -2.86% | -11.47% | 8.21% |
| 2020 | -10.77% | -12.85% | 10.89% | -3.31% | -0.84% | -2.68% | -0.90% | 1.23% | -5.73% | 15.93% | 7.41% | |
| Avg | 0.18% | 0.83% | 0.82% | 2.28% | 0.83% | -0.34% | 1.68% | 2.58% | 1.32% | -0.77% | 7.07% | 1.60% |
ALL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ALL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALL Distribution of Daily % Changes