Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +8.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +21.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.41% | 16.60% | -9.82% | 2.67% | -0.60% | -3.60% | 0.30% | 7.18% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.08% | -14.64% | -15.06% | 9.09% | 4.41% | 4.64% | -31.86% | 10.04% | -11.79% | 10.11% | 6.75% | 6.09% |
| 2024 | -2.44% | 13.13% | 8.43% | -13.89% | -8.91% | -6.14% | -3.96% | 2.30% | 7.21% | -19.38% | 13.53% | -10.42% |
| 2023 | 27.89% | 14.74% | 7.96% | -2.65% | -13.11% | 25.11% | 6.86% | -2.05% | -17.51% | -39.54% | 15.82% | 28.16% |
| 2022 | -24.68% | 3.33% | -14.75% | -33.51% | -4.23% | -14.76% | 18.72% | -13.26% | -15.01% | -6.19% | 1.21% | 7.24% |
| 2021 | -1.68% | 7.94% | -4.51% | 9.97% | -0.90% | 3.53% | 13.88% | 1.90% | -6.15% | -6.17% | -2.06% | 7.46% |
| 2020 | -15.07% | -20.33% | 23.51% | 14.32% | 11.73% | 7.06% | 1.08% | 10.23% | 30.16% | 12.96% | 11.03% | |
| Avg | 1.43% | 3.72% | -6.87% | -0.68% | -1.29% | 2.93% | 1.57% | -0.00% | -5.50% | -5.17% | 8.04% | 8.26% |
ALGN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALGN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ALGN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALGN Distribution of Daily % Changes