Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -10.6% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +54.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.35% | 1.28% | 16.73% | -10.34% | 45.21% | -20.95% | -2.56% | 8.52% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.44% | -19.24% | -0.22% | 0.10% | -5.77% | 5.04% | -4.33% | 3.70% | -4.26% | -0.87% | 19.20% | -2.54% |
| 2024 | 4.12% | -9.99% | -1.95% | -7.20% | -8.61% | -2.34% | 9.10% | 3.62% | -0.87% | 0.13% | -6.98% | 1.73% |
| 2023 | 5.52% | -18.38% | 7.85% | 4.69% | 12.38% | -2.44% | 5.15% | 11.21% | 1.38% | -3.01% | 11.81% | 2.44% |
| 2022 | -2.13% | -5.49% | 10.28% | -5.96% | -10.01% | -9.61% | 5.35% | -6.17% | -11.03% | 9.97% | 7.39% | -11.13% |
| 2021 | 5.75% | -14.89% | 7.83% | 6.67% | 5.07% | 2.09% | 2.85% | -5.56% | -7.65% | 0.83% | 6.87% | 3.85% |
| 2020 | -7.33% | 5.76% | 6.80% | 8.28% | 1.22% | 5.00% | 3.55% | -5.06% | -13.95% | 8.82% | 1.43% | |
| Avg | 4.84% | -10.58% | 6.61% | -0.75% | 6.65% | -3.86% | 2.94% | 1.72% | -4.58% | -1.15% | 7.85% | -0.70% |
AKAM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AKAM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AKAM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AKAM Distribution of Daily % Changes