Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.9% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.1% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -20.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.47% | 7.49% | -5.96% | -0.60% | -0.76% | 1.07% | 5.43% | -2.47% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.18% | 12.60% | 5.33% | -6.23% | 3.83% | 1.66% | -9.30% | 4.75% | -2.85% | 0.53% | -3.55% | 12.92% |
| 2024 | 2.60% | 4.86% | 7.75% | -3.66% | 4.66% | -5.30% | 6.72% | -2.75% | -4.43% | 3.62% | 1.32% | -4.78% |
| 2023 | -0.03% | -3.34% | -17.04% | 5.32% | -0.40% | 9.62% | 4.76% | -2.92% | 4.17% | 1.17% | 7.34% | 3.50% |
| 2022 | 1.57% | 6.04% | 3.06% | -6.79% | 0.29% | -12.33% | 1.25% | -0.04% | -7.71% | 20.05% | 10.72% | 0.71% |
| 2021 | -1.11% | 17.39% | 5.84% | 4.85% | 9.06% | -9.36% | -0.53% | 15.23% | 1.20% | 7.65% | -10.98% | 8.74% |
| 2020 | -16.12% | -41.75% | 4.87% | 18.21% | 4.79% | 3.08% | -9.33% | -4.47% | 14.38% | 22.07% | -0.71% | |
| Avg | -1.38% | 4.13% | -6.11% | -0.32% | 4.98% | -1.41% | 1.63% | 0.82% | -2.35% | 7.90% | 4.49% | 3.40% |
AIG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AIG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AIG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AIG Distribution of Daily % Changes