Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.37% | 17.95% | -18.46% | 2.56% | 2.77% | -0.07% | 1.34% | 0.34% | ||||
| 2025 | -13.17% | 5.36% | 7.16% | -19.48% | 2.71% | 4.26% | 25.00% | 4.36% | -2.81% | 6.74% | 1.37% | 1.99% |
| 2024 | -12.46% | -8.87% | 17.96% | 0.81% | 20.61% | -18.62% | 1.25% | -2.76% | 17.10% | -17.80% | -20.08% | -1.30% |
| 2023 | -4.09% | -9.96% | -2.43% | -1.05% | -16.57% | 5.02% | 5.15% | -17.11% | -15.23% | -0.87% | 15.50% | 11.85% |
| 2022 | -8.07% | -4.28% | 21.20% | -20.04% | 7.93% | -4.67% | 6.51% | 14.54% | -11.20% | 16.45% | 10.55% | -0.55% |
| 2021 | 4.47% | 8.90% | 0.94% | 4.33% | -8.66% | 2.60% | -8.52% | 0.72% | -4.36% | 10.07% | -6.40% | 3.94% |
| 2020 | -15.76% | -18.71% | -1.59% | -5.74% | 16.01% | 6.09% | 16.55% | 2.03% | 8.47% | 4.82% | 14.97% | |
| Avg | -4.99% | -0.95% | 1.09% | -4.92% | 0.44% | 0.65% | 5.26% | 2.72% | -2.41% | 3.84% | 0.96% | 5.15% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -5.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
AES - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AES - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AES Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AES Distribution of Daily % Changes