Seasonality
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AEP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.3% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +3.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.88% | 12.60% | -2.05% | 4.60% | -6.94% | 8.01% | -6.55% | -1.01% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.65% | 8.83% | 3.04% | -0.85% | -3.62% | 0.26% | 9.04% | -1.06% | 1.33% | 6.90% | 3.73% | -6.84% |
| 2024 | -3.79% | 10.28% | 1.07% | -0.08% | 5.93% | -2.78% | 11.83% | 3.13% | 2.31% | -3.75% | 2.11% | -7.64% |
| 2023 | -1.04% | -5.51% | 3.43% | 1.57% | -9.25% | 1.30% | 0.64% | -6.52% | -4.06% | 0.43% | 6.51% | 2.10% |
| 2022 | 1.61% | 1.15% | 10.06% | -0.66% | 3.76% | -5.97% | 2.73% | 2.46% | -13.72% | 1.70% | 11.13% | -1.91% |
| 2021 | -2.83% | -6.64% | 13.16% | 4.73% | -2.23% | -1.64% | 4.17% | 2.49% | -9.37% | 4.35% | -3.42% | 9.77% |
| 2020 | -13.76% | -10.40% | 3.91% | 3.49% | -6.58% | 9.09% | -8.52% | 3.68% | 10.03% | -4.83% | -1.91% | |
| Avg | 0.74% | 0.99% | 2.62% | 1.89% | -1.27% | -1.06% | 4.42% | -1.34% | -3.30% | 3.28% | 2.54% | -1.07% |
AEP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AEP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AEP Distribution of Daily % Changes