Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.9% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +3.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
AEE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AEE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AEE Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.42% | 9.68% | -2.31% | 3.39% | -5.00% | 5.43% | -3.03% | 0.12% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.68% | 7.81% | -0.43% | -1.16% | -2.38% | -0.13% | 5.30% | -1.33% | 5.36% | -2.26% | 4.24% | -5.43% |
| 2024 | -3.83% | 2.33% | 4.84% | -0.12% | -0.68% | -2.16% | 11.48% | 4.09% | 6.84% | -0.40% | 8.36% | -4.86% |
| 2023 | -2.31% | -4.79% | 5.25% | 2.99% | -8.88% | 1.51% | 4.90% | -7.47% | -4.84% | 1.18% | 2.48% | -6.01% |
| 2022 | -0.30% | -3.14% | 9.81% | -0.92% | 2.46% | -4.47% | 3.05% | -0.54% | -12.48% | 1.20% | 9.57% | 0.23% |
| 2021 | -6.84% | -3.37% | 16.65% | 4.28% | -0.75% | -4.33% | 4.85% | 4.53% | -7.08% | 4.06% | -3.20% | 9.80% |
| 2020 | -3.72% | -7.25% | -0.11% | 2.72% | -5.24% | 14.04% | -1.41% | 0.59% | 2.58% | -4.12% | 1.03% | |
| Avg | -0.70% | 0.69% | 3.79% | 1.19% | -1.79% | -1.34% | 5.80% | -0.36% | -1.93% | 1.06% | 2.89% | -0.87% |
AEE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years