Seasonality
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ADM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.08% | 3.34% | 5.29% | 2.55% | 7.74% | -4.24% | 3.76% | 1.49% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.41% | -6.84% | 1.72% | -0.54% | 2.13% | 9.34% | 2.65% | 16.61% | -4.63% | 1.32% | 1.19% | -5.35% |
| 2024 | -23.04% | -3.54% | 18.26% | -6.61% | 7.31% | -3.19% | 2.58% | -0.80% | -2.05% | -7.58% | -0.17% | -7.47% |
| 2023 | -10.77% | -3.40% | 0.08% | -1.98% | -8.98% | 6.95% | 12.44% | -6.16% | -4.89% | -5.10% | 3.66% | -2.05% |
| 2022 | 10.96% | 5.16% | 15.05% | -0.78% | 1.87% | -14.56% | 6.66% | 6.68% | -8.47% | 20.55% | 0.96% | -4.77% |
| 2021 | -0.79% | 13.93% | 0.74% | 10.75% | 5.97% | -8.91% | -1.45% | 1.07% | 0.02% | 7.05% | -2.62% | 8.65% |
| 2020 | -15.22% | -6.56% | 5.57% | 6.92% | 1.50% | 7.34% | 5.36% | 3.87% | -0.54% | 8.41% | 1.29% | |
| Avg | -0.86% | -0.94% | 4.94% | 1.28% | 3.28% | -1.87% | 4.85% | 3.79% | -2.69% | 2.62% | 1.91% | -1.62% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +4.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +6.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +31.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
ADM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ADM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ADM Distribution of Daily % Changes