Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +5.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.5% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -8.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13% | 4.28% | -4.15% | -1.59% | -5.42% | 8.64% | 3.58% | -1.81% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.78% | -0.17% | 3.52% | -5.72% | 4.81% | -4.20% | -5.48% | 6.36% | -0.87% | -4.87% | 8.82% | 2.13% |
| 2024 | 10.99% | 6.26% | 5.54% | 1.19% | 9.72% | -1.70% | -5.06% | 18.07% | -1.07% | -11.91% | 7.47% | -8.31% |
| 2023 | 2.50% | 8.78% | -3.04% | 10.61% | -7.15% | 7.39% | 3.79% | -1.07% | 3.71% | 8.74% | -3.45% | -11.26% |
| 2022 | 4.21% | 1.71% | 2.78% | -5.68% | 3.92% | -4.15% | -2.40% | 2.97% | -0.39% | 26.26% | 4.19% | 4.79% |
| 2021 | -12.92% | 14.04% | 7.12% | 3.49% | 0.45% | -2.38% | 0.15% | 5.38% | -7.10% | 9.53% | -3.44% | 10.08% |
| 2020 | -8.45% | -29.61% | -15.57% | 17.44% | 1.52% | 7.33% | 2.57% | -7.26% | 3.28% | 6.59% | 12.02% | |
| Avg | 0.95% | 3.78% | -2.55% | -1.90% | 3.39% | 0.73% | 0.27% | 5.71% | -2.17% | 5.17% | 3.36% | 1.58% |
ACGL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ACGL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ACGL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ACGL Distribution of Daily % Changes