Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.39% | -20.69% | -15.54% | 6.25% | -6.22% | -12.37% | -44.58% | -2.58% | 3.03% | -30.15% | ||
| 2025 | -4.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | 81.48% | -36.73% | -9.68% | 58.04% | 128.81% | 44.69% | 37.37% | -25.34% | -9.32% |
| 2024 | -8.05% | 3.75% | -9.64% | 0.00% | -9.33% | -11.76% | 11.67% | -7.46% | -3.23% | -10.00% | 14.81% | 20.97% |
| 2023 | 47.06% | 34.00% | -8.96% | -18.03% | 0.00% | -3.00% | -11.34% | -5.81% | -14.81% | 13.04% | -19.23% | 38.10% |
| 2022 | 50.68% | -16.36% | -8.70% | 7.14% | -10.00% | -20.99% | 21.88% | 8.97% | -15.29% | 6.94% | 0.00% | -11.69% |
| 2021 | 10.17% | 50.77% | -22.96% | -13.24% | -9.92% | -15.25% | -11.00% | 6.74% | -5.26% | -4.44% | -6.98% | -8.75% |
| 2020 | -6.67% | -14.29% | 41.67% | -11.76% | -6.67% | 0.00% | -21.43% | 0.00% | -18.18% | 0.00% | 31.11% | |
| Avg | 24.88% | 6.40% | -4.30% | 15.04% | -12.00% | -11.39% | 3.52% | 15.32% | 1.30% | 4.12% | -6.12% | 10.07% |
UCU.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +24.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -12.0% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +27.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +27.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -91.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
UCU.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
UCU.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
UCU.V Distribution of Daily % Changes