Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -20.57% | -7.19% | -1.92% | 1.77% | 6.58% | -9.34% | 12.81% | 3.75% | -18.38% | 11.69% | ||
| 2025 | 12.22% | 2.64% | 0.86% | 16.85% | 8.81% | -4.96% | 11.37% | -10.25% | -12.47% | -7.54% | -4.66% | -3.36% |
| 2024 | 16.54% | 18.27% | 0.58% | -7.54% | 4.29% | 0.00% | 3.91% | 7.61% | -2.45% | -6.61% | 1.28% | 0.68% |
| 2023 | 8.05% | 15.51% | 8.86% | -6.55% | 6.73% | 12.80% | -4.28% | -1.06% | -12.81% | 1.77% | 0.05% | -2.32% |
| 2022 | -11.15% | -13.60% | 4.63% | -14.32% | -16.61% | 9.01% | 0.85% | -7.17% | -2.32% | 6.44% | 5.80% | -4.96% |
| 2021 | 24.95% | 11.46% | -16.20% | 16.80% | 4.39% | 36.20% | 3.87% | 3.85% | -17.33% | 1.69% | ||
| Avg | 1.02% | 3.13% | 6.33% | 0.28% | -1.07% | 4.05% | 4.84% | 4.85% | -7.43% | -0.42% | -2.97% | -1.65% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +6.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -7.4% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +10.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.5% historically, with January alone posting a 60% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -47.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
TOI.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TOI.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TOI.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TOI.V Distribution of Daily % Changes