Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.97% | 8.33% | -17.16% | -6.96% | 3.88% | -20.90% | -5.53% | 34.34% | -11.28% | -22.66% | ||
| 2025 | 9.38% | 8.57% | 23.68% | 34.04% | 10.29% | 10.29% | -1.00% | 57.53% | 9.57% | -14.96% | 16.98% | 2.42% |
| 2024 | -12.50% | -4.76% | 15.00% | 8.70% | 8.00% | -3.70% | 0.00% | 19.23% | 0.00% | -9.68% | 7.14% | 6.67% |
| 2023 | 20.00% | -6.67% | 3.57% | 10.34% | -12.50% | 7.14% | 26.67% | -13.16% | -15.15% | -7.14% | 0.00% | -7.69% |
| 2022 | 4.17% | 12.00% | 0.00% | 3.57% | 0.00% | -20.69% | 8.70% | -16.00% | 14.29% | 12.50% | -3.70% | -3.85% |
| 2021 | 11.11% | 5.00% | 0.00% | 80.95% | 2.63% | -12.82% | -2.94% | -6.06% | -16.13% | 34.62% | -25.71% | -7.69% |
| 2020 | 6.67% | -18.75% | 38.46% | -5.56% | 5.88% | 55.56% | -17.86% | 8.70% | -16.00% | -9.52% | -5.26% | |
| Avg | 9.52% | 4.16% | 0.91% | 24.16% | 0.96% | -4.97% | 11.64% | 8.29% | -1.43% | -0.11% | -2.47% | -2.57% |
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +24.2% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +20.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +14.6% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -81.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
THX.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
THX.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
THX.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
THX.V Distribution of Daily % Changes