Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +14.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.9% historically, with January alone posting a 40% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -43.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.43% | 2.13% | -26.25% | -5.08% | 21.43% | -29.90% | -16.08% | 40.00% | -16.37% | -8.90% | ||
| 2025 | 12.77% | 5.66% | 3.57% | 0.00% | 1.72% | 27.12% | -6.67% | 24.29% | 47.13% | -0.78% | -3.15% | 39.02% |
| 2024 | -20.00% | -3.33% | -1.72% | 36.84% | 20.51% | -5.32% | 1.12% | 0.00% | 28.89% | 1.72% | -21.19% | 1.08% |
| 2023 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -43.24% | -2.38% | 7.32% | -13.64% | -13.16% | 24.24% | -8.54% |
| 2022 | -19.00% | 19.75% | 23.71% | -6.67% | 32.14% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | 8.75% | -1.15% | -15.12% | -6.85% | -26.47% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||||
| Avg | 2.24% | 4.84% | -0.14% | 5.02% | 14.09% | -8.75% | -6.52% | 10.79% | 3.26% | -2.44% | -0.02% | 6.31% |
SM.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SM.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SM.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SM.V Distribution of Daily % Changes