Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +12.0% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -7.1% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +26.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -22.22% | 12.86% | 1.27% | 43.75% | -6.96% | -30.84% | 6.76% | 55.70% | -12.20% | -13.89% | ||
| 2025 | 0.00% | -11.76% | 6.67% | -6.25% | 16.67% | 8.57% | 18.42% | 44.44% | -3.08% | 12.70% | 12.68% | 12.50% |
| 2024 | 5.00% | -19.05% | 11.76% | -10.53% | 5.88% | -5.56% | 11.76% | 5.26% | 45.00% | -3.45% | -14.29% | 41.67% |
| 2023 | 21.43% | -5.88% | 31.25% | 9.52% | -30.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.00% | -15.00% | 23.53% | -4.76% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | -8.33% | -13.64% | 0.00% | -36.84% | -8.33% | 9.09% | -25.00% | 0.00% | 44.44% | 0.00% | 7.69% |
| 2021 | -11.76% | -6.67% | 14.29% | -12.50% | 0.00% | -10.71% | 8.00% | 3.70% | -17.86% | -13.04% | 15.00% | 4.35% |
| 2020 | -10.53% | -23.53% | 30.77% | 17.65% | 35.00% | 18.52% | 0.00% | -6.25% | 3.33% | 9.68% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | -1.26% | -7.05% | 4.01% | 7.82% | -4.86% | -1.70% | 10.36% | 12.02% | 4.37% | 4.83% | 7.77% | 10.24% |
RDS.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RDS.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RDS.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RDS.V Distribution of Daily % Changes