Seasonality
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Seasonality
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MKO.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +9.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -6.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +13.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +13.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +35.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.08% | 17.78% | -21.82% | 11.61% | 19.70% | -12.87% | -5.08% | 39.39% | -2.97% | -16.36% | ||
| 2025 | 18.24% | 1.86% | 12.27% | 4.42% | 9.13% | 6.12% | -3.27% | 23.66% | 30.23% | -7.28% | 0.27% | 5.84% |
| 2024 | -19.41% | -8.18% | 15.84% | 52.99% | -4.75% | -2.35% | 2.10% | -10.00% | 2.29% | 0.00% | -2.88% | 4.61% |
| 2023 | 35.71% | 0.00% | 11.58% | -5.66% | -6.50% | -31.55% | 7.03% | -5.11% | 3.85% | 11.11% | 54.67% | 17.67% |
| 2022 | -11.11% | 12.50% | 11.11% | -12.50% | -14.29% | -6.67% | -10.71% | -8.00% | -13.04% | -35.00% | 7.69% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | -10.00% | -5.56% | 0.00% | 5.88% | 11.11% | -2.50% | -10.26% | -2.86% | -11.76% | 26.67% | -5.26% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | -11.76% | 16.67% | 11.43% | 20.51% | 2.13% | 4.17% | -10.00% | -6.67% | -11.90% | -8.11% | 17.65% | |
| Avg | 5.92% | 0.95% | 6.52% | 9.74% | 4.99% | -6.81% | -2.29% | 3.87% | 0.27% | -2.74% | 7.73% | 7.63% |
MKO.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MKO.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MKO.V Distribution of Daily % Changes