Seasonality
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Seasonality
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LUCA.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +14.5% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +20.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +20.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -101.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.49% | 7.07% | -28.93% | -8.57% | -0.78% | -23.62% | -16.49% | 38.27% | -1.79% | -7.27% | ||
| 2025 | 62.96% | 31.82% | 7.76% | 19.20% | -12.75% | 2.31% | 23.31% | -4.27% | 2.55% | -13.04% | -5.71% | 12.88% |
| 2024 | -9.68% | -14.29% | 54.17% | 18.92% | 4.55% | 23.91% | 1.75% | 1.72% | -22.03% | 28.26% | -6.78% | -1.82% |
| 2023 | -16.33% | -4.88% | 0.00% | 5.13% | -9.76% | 29.73% | -2.08% | -38.30% | -6.90% | -14.81% | 34.78% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | -32.65% | 0.00% | 6.06% | -5.71% | -24.24% | -28.00% | -5.56% | -11.76% | -13.33% | -15.38% | -18.18% | -31.94% |
| 2021 | -7.14% | 23.08% | 87.50% | -1.67% | 15.25% | 17.65% | -3.75% | -6.49% | -44.44% | 12.50% | -11.11% | 22.50% |
| 2020 | -27.27% | -25.00% | 33.33% | 0.00% | 62.50% | 46.15% | 5.26% | 45.00% | -3.45% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | 3.44% | 2.22% | 14.51% | 8.66% | -3.96% | 12.07% | 6.19% | -2.22% | -5.85% | -0.99% | -1.17% | 0.27% |
LUCA.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LUCA.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LUCA.V Distribution of Daily % Changes