Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +8.6% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -9.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -21.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -26.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
ITR.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.24% | 18.36% | -36.59% | -2.13% | -0.82% | -13.70% | -7.30% | 34.59% | -6.11% | -15.99% | ||
| 2025 | 22.98% | 1.64% | 15.48% | 32.96% | -6.30% | -7.62% | 1.46% | 50.24% | 29.30% | -3.69% | 24.55% | 13.35% |
| 2024 | -16.55% | -18.10% | 1.05% | 8.33% | 17.31% | 4.10% | -0.79% | 1.59% | 3.13% | 17.42% | -14.84% | -6.06% |
| 2023 | 5.88% | -21.11% | 1.41% | 0.00% | -13.89% | -5.81% | -14.38% | -4.00% | -8.33% | -5.91% | 12.08% | 19.83% |
| 2022 | -11.76% | -22.50% | -3.23% | -23.33% | 3.62% | -9.09% | -33.08% | -13.79% | 0.00% | -1.33% | 17.57% | -2.30% |
| 2021 | -16.40% | 0.48% | -19.05% | 12.65% | 3.66% | -8.56% | -1.93% | -0.84% | -17.85% | 1.72% | -5.08% | -2.86% |
| 2020 | -21.97% | -17.48% | 31.76% | 22.32% | 38.69% | 18.74% | -11.52% | -11.22% | -6.32% | 4.82% | 14.94% | |
| Avg | -4.18% | -9.03% | -8.34% | 8.61% | 3.70% | -0.29% | -5.33% | 8.04% | -1.58% | 0.32% | 6.52% | 6.15% |
ITR.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ITR.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ITR.V Distribution of Daily % Changes