Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jun averages +22.8% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -5.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +36.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -21.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.60% | 14.54% | -16.52% | -9.01% | -3.93% | -5.42% | 7.79% | 24.42% | -4.88% | -5.26% | ||
| 2025 | 14.76% | 0.19% | 8.22% | 15.72% | 10.45% | 13.26% | 2.34% | 13.85% | 26.44% | -6.30% | 6.99% | 0.30% |
| 2024 | -0.32% | 12.54% | 14.53% | 10.47% | 18.51% | -7.62% | 20.06% | 3.82% | 5.96% | 8.10% | 3.92% | -5.63% |
| 2023 | 7.97% | -7.38% | 2.05% | 1.56% | -0.88% | 5.54% | 9.66% | 17.05% | -5.07% | -12.24% | 33.40% | -6.92% |
| 2022 | -5.80% | -4.92% | 14.89% | 0.00% | -21.55% | -1.62% | -7.30% | -9.45% | -7.17% | -12.41% | 24.33% | -5.59% |
| 2021 | -4.84% | -12.48% | -3.38% | 12.82% | 11.88% | -9.69% | 6.47% | -11.52% | -2.89% | 13.04% | 9.88% | 3.45% |
| 2020 | -12.59% | -8.47% | 2.78% | 45.95% | 164.81% | 17.48% | 15.28% | 6.71% | -20.97% | 12.04% | 16.58% | |
| Avg | 3.23% | -1.44% | 1.62% | 4.91% | 8.63% | 22.75% | 8.07% | 7.63% | 2.73% | -5.13% | 15.09% | 0.36% |
ARTG.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ARTG.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ARTG.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ARTG.V Distribution of Daily % Changes