Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
AFM.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +25.2% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -12.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +22.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
AFM.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.76% | 18.05% | -26.75% | 19.13% | -2.19% | 11.19% | -1.34% | 2.04% | -5.33% | -9.86% | ||
| 2025 | -14.95% | -18.68% | -33.78% | 83.67% | 1.11% | -5.49% | 6.98% | 15.22% | -5.66% | 7.00% | 3.74% | 7.21% |
| 2024 | -2.22% | -1.14% | 5.75% | 35.87% | -9.66% | -3.64% | -5.66% | 2.00% | 15.69% | 4.11% | -1.71% | -6.96% |
| 2023 | 13.79% | -2.96% | -6.45% | 6.90% | -9.68% | 19.05% | 2.00% | -7.94% | -4.40% | 4.60% | -8.79% | 8.43% |
| 2022 | 8.51% | 9.78% | 7.34% | 18.80% | -20.86% | -24.55% | -5.87% | -10.67% | -1.49% | -7.58% | 31.15% | 8.75% |
| 2021 | 17.95% | 26.09% | -8.62% | 18.87% | 20.64% | -6.58% | 18.31% | -4.76% | 0.00% | 16.25% | 2.15% | -1.05% |
| 2020 | -10.00% | -22.22% | -7.14% | -7.69% | 16.67% | 35.72% | 47.37% | -14.29% | -12.50% | 23.81% | 50.00% | |
| Avg | 5.81% | 3.02% | -12.11% | 25.16% | -4.05% | 0.95% | 7.16% | 6.18% | -2.21% | 1.98% | 8.39% | 11.06% |
AFM.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AFM.V Distribution of Daily % Changes