Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.98% | -2.97% | -14.67% | 14.90% | -6.73% | -4.68% | -4.07% | 25.73% | -12.67% | 0.67% | ||
| 2025 | 1.15% | -10.70% | -0.29% | 10.84% | -10.13% | 8.31% | 25.66% | -8.43% | -11.98% | -1.17% | -13.96% | 0.42% |
| 2024 | 9.80% | 28.57% | 4.51% | 2.82% | 11.15% | 7.85% | 5.93% | 2.04% | 9.98% | 15.65% | 10.69% | -0.18% |
| 2023 | 10.19% | -9.59% | -3.79% | 5.51% | -3.73% | -0.78% | -1.95% | 9.16% | 7.66% | -5.59% | 60.50% | -8.72% |
| 2022 | -8.18% | 2.31% | -0.97% | -2.28% | -0.67% | -10.40% | -0.37% | -0.38% | -9.43% | -1.67% | -3.39% | 16.23% |
| 2021 | 3.81% | 4.67% | 5.10% | |||||||||
| Avg | 0.40% | 1.52% | -3.04% | 6.36% | -2.02% | 0.06% | 5.04% | 5.62% | -3.29% | 2.20% | 11.70% | 2.57% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.7% with a 60% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.3% with only a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 60% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -38.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
VHI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VHI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VHI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VHI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes