Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +3.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -2.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +5.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +26.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.00% | 20.96% | 7.90% | -3.13% | 10.59% | -6.43% | -0.76% | -8.70% | 12.82% | 0.56% | ||
| 2025 | -12.85% | -21.39% | -11.68% | 4.17% | 2.05% | -9.16% | 13.88% | -7.14% | 5.03% | -0.94% | -0.33% | 5.10% |
| 2024 | -3.61% | 11.40% | 13.71% | 0.50% | -1.25% | 6.04% | 3.97% | -6.12% | 0.10% | -1.75% | -13.28% | -7.75% |
| 2023 | 4.02% | 6.63% | 7.23% | 0.00% | -18.76% | -5.80% | 1.77% | -3.70% | 3.72% | -7.89% | -0.34% | 0.49% |
| 2022 | 10.41% | 1.61% | 0.19% | 1.37% | -10.16% | 11.68% | -2.22% | 13.28% | -5.56% | 1.86% | 9.77% | 2.65% |
| 2021 | -8.38% | 3.35% | 5.66% | 1.02% | 3.40% | 5.86% | -1.85% | -0.63% | 0.95% | 1.60% | -8.00% | -3.64% |
| 2020 | -2.27% | -17.13% | 19.95% | 7.48% | -3.24% | 7.56% | 10.32% | -0.81% | 4.52% | 3.95% | 11.70% | |
| Avg | -2.40% | 2.90% | 0.84% | 3.41% | -0.95% | -0.15% | 3.19% | -0.38% | 2.32% | -0.43% | -1.37% | 1.43% |
VCM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VCM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VCM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VCM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes