Seasonality
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Seasonality
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USA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +9.5% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -41.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.32% | 32.71% | -45.78% | 7.16% | 9.51% | -21.24% | -20.57% | 40.15% | -16.47% | -30.93% | ||
| 2025 | 33.93% | -9.33% | 13.24% | 10.39% | -1.18% | 30.95% | 14.55% | 17.46% | 40.27% | 7.51% | 11.65% | 13.00% |
| 2024 | -6.06% | -9.68% | 7.14% | 16.67% | 34.29% | -27.66% | 0.00% | -2.94% | 24.24% | 56.10% | -6.25% | -6.67% |
| 2023 | 7.79% | -18.07% | -5.88% | 6.25% | -17.65% | -16.07% | 14.89% | 7.41% | -15.52% | -28.57% | -2.86% | -2.94% |
| 2022 | -6.86% | 36.84% | 5.38% | -16.79% | -16.67% | -5.26% | -17.78% | -14.86% | -7.94% | 6.90% | 8.06% | 14.93% |
| 2021 | -14.95% | -4.61% | -13.90% | -7.02% | -17.74% | -14.68% | -8.60% | -22.94% | -22.90% | 14.85% | -9.48% | -2.86% |
| 2020 | -19.44% | -32.06% | 39.72% | 13.71% | 4.12% | 26.84% | -13.36% | -9.77% | -2.28% | 0.87% | 17.92% | |
| Avg | 9.53% | 1.20% | -10.27% | 8.05% | 0.61% | -7.12% | 1.33% | 1.56% | -1.15% | 9.08% | 0.33% | 5.56% |
USA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
USA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
USA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes