Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +9.2% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Nov shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Nov averages -13.6% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +18.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +356.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.94% | 38.92% | 11.43% | 59.53% | 17.67% | 1.68% | 16.36% | 5.08% | 14.11% | 0.59% | ||
| 2025 | 33.33% | 0.00% | 35.00% | 3.70% | -28.57% | 5.00% | 7.14% | 2.22% | 34.35% | -3.88% | -18.35% | 8.45% |
| 2024 | -12.26% | -10.75% | 2.41% | -16.47% | -12.68% | -1.61% | -4.92% | -43.10% | -12.12% | 0.00% | -51.72% | 7.14% |
| 2023 | 5.94% | 0.93% | -15.73% | 1.11% | -4.40% | 8.74% | 15.51% | 0.00% | -3.65% | -1.94% | -0.99% | 6.00% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | 1.54% | -0.77% | -3.08% | 17.46% | -10.83% | -5.34% | -2.42% | -17.37% | 16.16% | -1.74% | -9.73% |
| 2021 | 8.54% | 5.62% | 10.63% | 1.94% | 18.10% | 12.90% | 1.44% | -7.80% | 6.15% | 8.76% | -16.11% | 5.64% |
| 2020 | -15.74% | -45.40% | 17.53% | 24.56% | 16.90% | 0.00% | -1.22% | -1.11% | -15.19% | 7.46% | 15.29% | |
| Avg | 7.41% | 2.93% | -0.35% | 9.18% | 4.59% | 4.68% | 4.31% | -6.75% | 2.91% | 0.65% | -13.57% | 5.47% |
TWM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TWM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TWM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TWM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes