Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +9.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.9% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.79% | 12.35% | -6.69% | 1.06% | -7.00% | 8.43% | -6.11% | -0.31% | -1.76% | 1.27% | ||
| 2025 | -15.01% | 3.02% | -2.05% | 13.22% | 6.84% | 9.50% | -4.49% | -5.44% | -4.05% | 0.73% | 5.41% | 4.86% |
| 2024 | 10.32% | 16.64% | -4.80% | 0.96% | -4.09% | 2.60% | 11.60% | -9.44% | 3.28% | -4.61% | -2.16% | -3.30% |
| 2023 | -7.46% | -17.28% | -4.56% | -5.38% | 9.96% | 9.12% | -10.14% | -5.07% | -5.99% | 1.19% | 11.09% | 0.38% |
| 2022 | -9.94% | -19.16% | -1.01% | -10.13% | 12.75% | -4.31% | 7.20% | -2.66% | -3.94% | 18.62% | 8.25% | 5.57% |
| 2021 | -3.29% | 43.60% | -3.79% | 10.15% | 21.58% | 4.02% | 12.43% | -2.51% | -4.82% | -3.26% | 4.66% | 8.93% |
| 2020 | 11.18% | -15.24% | -0.73% | 27.83% | 17.79% | 30.17% | 10.41% | -3.73% | 2.88% | -5.84% | 8.49% | |
| Avg | -4.69% | 7.19% | -5.45% | 1.31% | 9.70% | 6.74% | 5.81% | -2.15% | -3.00% | 2.59% | 3.57% | 4.16% |
TSU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TSU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TSU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TSU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes