Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +4.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -2.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +7.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.64% | 9.78% | 0.39% | 4.56% | 0.86% | 3.17% | 0.51% | -8.07% | -4.05% | 5.98% | ||
| 2025 | -2.24% | -1.13% | 6.27% | 2.49% | -0.16% | -3.17% | -0.48% | 8.10% | 7.02% | -6.99% | 7.27% | 1.22% |
| 2024 | 2.47% | 1.21% | 3.22% | -9.40% | 6.57% | 0.50% | 13.04% | 6.48% | 4.55% | 10.50% | 5.40% | -0.64% |
| 2023 | 6.21% | -5.27% | -1.50% | 7.11% | -6.16% | 3.12% | -11.73% | 3.26% | -2.42% | 2.25% | 6.55% | 3.51% |
| 2022 | 11.58% | 3.75% | 4.84% | -3.63% | 7.74% | -7.71% | 2.38% | -7.29% | -10.69% | 7.55% | -0.40% | -7.91% |
| 2021 | 5.91% | -2.75% | 9.68% | 5.55% | 0.18% | 2.12% | -0.85% | -1.51% | 3.18% | 9.83% | -10.50% | -0.38% |
| 2020 | -3.60% | -9.33% | 2.41% | -3.14% | -5.18% | 5.26% | -0.10% | -7.07% | -6.19% | 8.94% | -8.00% | |
| Avg | 4.93% | 0.28% | 1.94% | 1.30% | 0.84% | -1.02% | 1.16% | 0.12% | -1.35% | 2.82% | 2.88% | -2.03% |
TRP.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TRP.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TRP.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TRP.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes