Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -4.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -14.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
TPX-B.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.98% | 2.57% | -6.13% | -4.84% | 0.26% | -2.56% | 7.02% | -4.35% | -4.68% | 6.82% | ||
| 2025 | -3.91% | 12.48% | -2.44% | -9.27% | -6.71% | -7.11% | 1.48% | 0.73% | -5.67% | 0.73% | 0.55% | -0.35% |
| 2024 | 5.51% | 1.30% | 7.06% | -11.96% | -7.70% | -6.51% | 6.24% | -0.33% | 8.33% | -0.63% | 12.24% | -4.12% |
| 2023 | -1.43% | 4.94% | -2.68% | 14.97% | 3.74% | 5.00% | 7.34% | -7.23% | -3.11% | -4.11% | 5.09% | -4.06% |
| 2022 | 3.03% | 9.44% | 2.95% | 2.95% | -0.50% | 1.62% | 8.49% | -11.00% | -0.97% | 5.26% | 5.71% | -4.76% |
| 2021 | 16.05% | -14.80% | 14.04% | 4.62% | 4.28% | -6.08% | -7.64% | -1.36% | -0.53% | -8.64% | 5.59% | 2.47% |
| 2020 | -9.12% | -16.62% | 10.41% | -13.29% | -13.05% | 6.74% | -0.54% | -9.69% | 3.95% | 27.78% | -3.74% | |
| Avg | 3.37% | 0.97% | -0.55% | 0.98% | -2.85% | -4.10% | 4.24% | -3.44% | -2.33% | -0.57% | 9.50% | -2.43% |
TPX-B.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TPX-B.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TPX-B.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes