Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +12.3% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -5.9% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +15.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -26.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
TOU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.66% | -0.62% | 4.75% | -1.17% | -4.22% | -5.15% | 4.40% | 1.99% | -2.77% | 9.20% | ||
| 2025 | -0.47% | 0.82% | 5.33% | -12.25% | 2.16% | 6.98% | -10.24% | -0.50% | 3.78% | 2.78% | 4.69% | -3.51% |
| 2024 | -2.45% | 5.66% | 4.49% | 6.24% | 1.24% | -7.76% | -2.10% | 1.97% | 2.87% | 2.20% | 3.75% | 1.22% |
| 2023 | -6.51% | -3.56% | -5.39% | 8.08% | -4.35% | 10.47% | 9.48% | 2.86% | -0.99% | 8.78% | -10.43% | -8.85% |
| 2022 | 14.12% | 10.33% | 15.65% | 14.86% | 20.65% | -14.02% | 19.87% | -0.59% | -7.29% | 6.92% | 9.66% | -16.27% |
| 2021 | 6.18% | 27.11% | 3.96% | 10.87% | 11.05% | 20.89% | -3.87% | -0.94% | 34.01% | 1.08% | -4.96% | -3.50% |
| 2020 | -16.48% | -21.45% | 59.72% | -0.87% | -12.37% | 14.74% | 21.66% | -1.05% | 6.08% | 4.75% | -4.34% | |
| Avg | 2.59% | 3.32% | 1.05% | 12.34% | 3.67% | -0.14% | 4.61% | 3.78% | 4.08% | 4.64% | 1.24% | -5.87% |
TOU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TOU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TOU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes