Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +15.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -2.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +148.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
TOT.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TOT.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
TOT.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.67% | 9.76% | 26.07% | 3.61% | 3.74% | -9.00% | 7.02% | 32.97% | 8.17% | 16.62% | ||
| 2025 | -3.20% | -9.66% | -5.94% | -5.74% | 16.82% | 5.31% | 7.78% | 14.52% | 8.79% | -2.08% | 1.84% | 4.45% |
| 2024 | 24.60% | 0.85% | 8.11% | -4.91% | -2.38% | 3.19% | 1.45% | -2.65% | -0.72% | 2.56% | 21.41% | -0.32% |
| 2023 | 7.67% | -5.29% | -4.77% | -3.26% | 8.99% | 1.63% | 16.50% | -8.20% | 0.43% | -11.54% | -4.71% | -3.19% |
| 2022 | 13.10% | -7.62% | 23.81% | 3.46% | 14.87% | -18.80% | 3.21% | -5.71% | -10.27% | 21.36% | 11.73% | -1.02% |
| 2021 | -5.49% | 12.90% | 12.00% | -0.51% | -2.31% | 18.11% | -10.67% | 1.49% | 12.01% | 9.85% | 7.37% | 11.87% |
| 2020 | -4.26% | -64.22% | -9.73% | 25.15% | 0.48% | 0.00% | 10.00% | -1.73% | -12.78% | 56.06% | 6.15% | |
| Avg | 7.89% | -0.47% | -0.70% | -2.44% | 9.27% | 0.13% | 3.61% | 6.06% | 2.38% | 1.23% | 15.62% | 2.99% |
TOT.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years