Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +11.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +21.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +23.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.20% | 17.39% | -25.84% | 8.10% | 5.24% | -4.59% | -3.27% | 32.77% | 0.64% | -15.27% | ||
| 2025 | -3.21% | 12.18% | 5.92% | -2.79% | -1.28% | 39.16% | -1.16% | 5.41% | 31.70% | 7.63% | 15.59% | 5.86% |
| 2024 | 5.38% | 8.67% | 36.62% | 16.84% | 9.71% | -9.65% | -10.39% | 1.66% | 11.73% | -9.91% | -7.44% | -2.10% |
| 2023 | 19.70% | -1.69% | -3.86% | -0.45% | -26.46% | 15.85% | 5.79% | -3.48% | -12.37% | -12.94% | 10.81% | 13.41% |
| 2022 | -6.54% | -0.82% | 19.50% | -13.54% | -20.08% | -29.15% | 0.00% | -2.84% | 15.33% | -3.80% | 24.34% | 4.76% |
| 2021 | -6.63% | 37.42% | 0.94% | 14.42% | 19.92% | -11.86% | -13.85% | 0.00% | 6.25% | 9.66% | 1.15% | -1.52% |
| 2020 | -24.59% | -17.39% | 28.95% | 12.24% | 21.82% | 28.36% | 44.19% | 13.71% | -12.77% | 0.81% | 33.87% | |
| Avg | 6.98% | 6.94% | 2.27% | 7.36% | -0.10% | 3.08% | 0.78% | 11.10% | 9.57% | -3.69% | 7.54% | 9.05% |
TKO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TKO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TKO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TKO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes