Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
TF.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.03% | -2.45% | 0.58% | 1.31% | -1.21% | -0.49% | -6.62% | -3.69% | -7.83% | -2.09% | ||
| 2025 | -1.31% | -2.34% | -1.37% | 6.53% | 7.05% | 4.19% | 2.48% | 0.88% | -2.62% | -10.47% | 3.58% | 1.14% |
| 2024 | 7.60% | 8.40% | 2.44% | -2.75% | -4.03% | 1.66% | 7.65% | 4.04% | 3.77% | -6.22% | 1.69% | -6.82% |
| 2023 | 12.64% | 4.39% | -2.20% | -0.77% | -5.99% | 2.16% | 0.91% | -1.77% | -6.22% | -13.83% | 12.79% | 4.31% |
| 2022 | -0.22% | -0.03% | 0.81% | -3.39% | -0.23% | -11.33% | 6.02% | -2.66% | -5.34% | 1.95% | 2.58% | -8.43% |
| 2021 | 0.55% | 3.22% | 0.32% | 3.72% | 5.26% | 0.82% | 2.29% | 1.12% | -0.54% | 1.54% | -6.21% | 6.59% |
| 2020 | -4.30% | -25.38% | 11.84% | 5.04% | 5.33% | -1.19% | 0.33% | 0.11% | -8.53% | 17.39% | -1.49% | |
| Avg | 3.71% | 0.99% | -3.54% | 2.35% | 0.84% | 0.33% | 1.65% | -0.25% | -2.67% | -5.93% | 5.30% | -0.78% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -5.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +3.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -28.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
TF.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TF.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TF.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes