Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +30.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.81% | 4.42% | -2.23% | 13.52% | 7.80% | 9.31% | -1.90% | -0.22% | -0.20% | 4.99% | ||
| 2025 | 9.82% | 4.50% | -0.47% | 3.50% | 7.58% | 5.69% | 1.81% | 2.18% | 7.91% | 4.47% | 2.16% | 9.95% |
| 2024 | -3.48% | -0.22% | 0.32% | 1.18% | -6.70% | -1.31% | 9.89% | -0.96% | 5.91% | -8.93% | 2.94% | -3.41% |
| 2023 | 6.15% | -1.31% | -10.90% | 2.59% | -6.37% | 6.86% | 7.17% | -5.22% | -0.72% | -4.18% | 6.82% | 3.48% |
| 2022 | 5.92% | 0.46% | -3.02% | -5.60% | 4.17% | -12.67% | -0.39% | 1.57% | 0.27% | 3.97% | 2.68% | -2.08% |
| 2021 | 1.83% | 6.46% | 6.25% | 4.08% | 2.84% | -0.03% | -3.64% | -1.23% | 2.34% | 8.14% | 0.34% | 7.58% |
| 2020 | -5.61% | -13.34% | -1.49% | 1.41% | 2.73% | -0.88% | 9.79% | -5.26% | -3.45% | 17.86% | 3.81% | |
| Avg | 3.24% | 1.24% | -3.34% | 2.54% | 1.53% | 1.51% | 1.72% | 0.84% | 1.47% | 0.00% | 5.47% | 3.22% |
TD.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TD.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TD.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TD.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes