Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +99.1% with a 80% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -10.1% with only a 20% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +94.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +94.7% historically, with January alone posting a 60% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -74.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.10% | 63.73% | -3.06% | -9.27% | -5.16% | -13.33% | 5.90% | 18.64% | -20.61% | -18.64% | ||
| 2025 | 9.52% | 3.26% | -17.89% | -20.51% | 9.68% | 48.53% | 18.81% | 16.67% | 177.14% | -19.33% | 53.35% | 30.63% |
| 2024 | 0.00% | 414.29% | 15.74% | -4.00% | -10.00% | -7.41% | 0.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% | -3.03% | -2.08% | -10.64% |
| 2023 | 18.75% | -5.26% | -11.11% | 12.50% | -5.56% | -23.53% | 0.00% | 38.46% | 5.56% | 10.53% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | -17.50% | 19.70% | -21.52% | -29.03% | -13.64% | -10.53% | 11.76% | 31.58% | -32.00% | -2.94% | 15.15% | -15.79% |
| 2021 | -2.00% | -10.20% | -9.09% | |||||||||
| Avg | 3.18% | 99.14% | -7.57% | -10.06% | -4.94% | -1.25% | 7.29% | 20.87% | 26.02% | -3.35% | 11.24% | -0.98% |
TALA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TALA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TALA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TALA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes