Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +13.1% with a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Nov shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Nov averages -5.8% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +12.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +29.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.56% | 5.26% | 40.00% | -7.14% | 11.54% | -22.41% | 8.89% | 6.12% | 7.69% | 3.57% | ||
| 2025 | 25.93% | 4.81% | -1.45% | -13.24% | 1.87% | 15.52% | 10.45% | -5.22% | -11.76% | 10.00% | -40.91% | 0.00% |
| 2024 | -1.27% | -1.54% | 4.05% | 3.90% | 0.16% | -5.13% | -1.35% | -1.29% | -8.57% | 1.56% | 0.16% | -14.29% |
| 2023 | 2.99% | -4.35% | 12.12% | 8.11% | -8.91% | -9.86% | 15.63% | 6.03% | 2.67% | -3.90% | 22.73% | -10.23% |
| 2022 | 38.10% | 17.24% | -5.88% | -1.56% | 26.98% | -10.00% | -6.94% | 11.94% | -22.67% | 22.41% | -2.82% | -2.90% |
| 2021 | -4.00% | 33.33% | -3.13% | -12.90% | -11.11% | 20.83% | -6.90% | 11.11% | 36.67% | -4.88% | -28.20% | 50.00% |
| 2020 | -28.89% | -50.00% | 31.25% | -14.29% | 0.00% | 33.33% | -4.17% | -21.74% | -22.22% | 14.29% | 56.25% | |
| Avg | 9.86% | 3.70% | -0.61% | 1.20% | 0.89% | -1.58% | 7.59% | 3.50% | -2.53% | 0.50% | -5.79% | 13.14% |
TAL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TAL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TAL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
TAL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data