Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
T.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.03% | -1.58% | -2.19% | -4.87% | 1.76% | -11.17% | -10.80% | 0.22% | -9.59% | 3.26% | ||
| 2025 | 8.16% | 6.21% | -6.19% | 2.81% | 5.94% | -0.87% | 2.06% | 1.43% | -1.37% | -6.43% | -10.58% | 0.94% |
| 2024 | 2.12% | -1.70% | -6.98% | 2.03% | 1.36% | -5.98% | 7.63% | -2.33% | 6.01% | -3.00% | -0.95% | -8.96% |
| 2023 | 9.72% | -5.37% | 0.18% | 7.04% | -10.45% | 1.67% | -8.92% | 1.06% | -5.04% | 0.81% | 8.59% | -1.44% |
| 2022 | 0.40% | 7.02% | 3.04% | -1.59% | -1.52% | -8.42% | 2.83% | 0.34% | -6.18% | 3.72% | 0.67% | -7.63% |
| 2021 | 4.68% | -3.37% | -0.69% | 1.88% | 6.27% | 3.75% | -0.32% | 4.91% | -3.21% | 1.98% | 2.85% | 3.16% |
| 2020 | -8.69% | -6.99% | 2.25% | 4.88% | -3.46% | 2.02% | 3.40% | -1.25% | -2.77% | 9.96% | 1.86% | |
| Avg | 5.02% | -1.07% | -2.83% | 1.36% | 1.18% | -3.50% | -0.79% | 1.29% | -2.95% | -0.95% | 1.76% | -2.01% |
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +5.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +1.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -30.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
T.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
T.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
T.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes