Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +8.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.1% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +66.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.14% | 7.06% | 20.34% | 1.16% | -7.42% | -10.87% | 23.38% | -1.50% | 4.73% | 15.21% | ||
| 2025 | 6.28% | 1.52% | 1.75% | -12.62% | 0.21% | 5.74% | 7.14% | 3.88% | 3.64% | -4.10% | 12.52% | -2.10% |
| 2024 | 4.88% | 4.74% | 8.47% | 5.08% | 5.84% | -5.23% | 5.73% | -0.87% | -7.74% | 5.29% | 5.99% | -6.94% |
| 2023 | 7.52% | -0.69% | -7.47% | 1.10% | -10.35% | 3.58% | 6.18% | 12.19% | 2.05% | -3.85% | 0.85% | -5.12% |
| 2022 | 14.76% | 6.72% | 6.13% | 13.46% | 10.20% | -10.45% | -3.76% | -2.23% | -7.42% | 20.46% | -5.61% | -1.74% |
| 2021 | 0.19% | 18.14% | 4.80% | 0.08% | 6.73% | 6.55% | -17.28% | -4.07% | 12.47% | 23.95% | -4.39% | 3.12% |
| 2020 | -8.55% | -38.50% | 10.51% | -4.63% | -2.47% | -7.95% | -0.66% | -21.52% | -7.56% | 38.19% | 3.85% | |
| Avg | 8.63% | 4.13% | -0.64% | 2.68% | 0.08% | -1.88% | 1.92% | 0.96% | -1.97% | 5.70% | 7.92% | -1.49% |
SU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes