Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +14.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +15.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +15.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +301.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
SOIL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.04% | 5.38% | 88.59% | 7.32% | -0.59% | -22.09% | 1.92% | 19.17% | 8.99% | 41.24% | ||
| 2025 | -2.31% | -4.74% | -2.49% | -21.43% | 12.99% | 21.26% | 23.22% | -2.69% | 8.70% | -4.36% | 0.76% | -8.30% |
| 2024 | 9.55% | -3.73% | 9.48% | 5.12% | -1.87% | 1.91% | -0.75% | 5.28% | -16.13% | -5.56% | 3.62% | -5.68% |
| 2023 | 2.98% | 5.37% | -1.57% | -3.19% | -13.17% | 3.79% | 20.55% | 0.00% | 8.33% | -14.34% | -8.16% | -2.22% |
| 2022 | -11.93% | -14.12% | -3.36% | 0.69% | 7.24% | -22.83% | 2.08% | 7.76% | -9.09% | 20.00% | -10.76% | -8.56% |
| 2021 | 9.09% | 25.00% | -6.67% | -14.29% | 66.67% | -30.00% | -14.29% | 25.00% | 20.00% | 12.50% | -22.72% | 25.88% |
| 2020 | 0.00% | -35.71% | 22.22% | 27.27% | -14.29% | 0.00% | -8.33% | -9.09% | -10.00% | 33.33% | -8.33% | |
| Avg | 6.24% | 1.88% | 6.90% | -0.51% | 14.08% | -8.89% | 4.68% | 6.60% | 1.67% | -0.29% | -0.65% | -1.20% |
SOIL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SOIL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SOIL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes