Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 2Y.
Feb averages +12.0% with a 100% win rate across 2 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.4% with only a 50% win rate across 2 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +16.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.8% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 2Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46% | 13.39% | 7.08% | 0.48% | 6.67% | 2.15% | 4.04% | 0.85% | -8.73% | 5.22% | ||
| 2025 | 2.54% | 10.70% | -2.66% | -7.37% | 4.46% | 1.33% | 2.94% | 4.59% | 5.33% | -7.62% | 5.63% | -0.01% |
| 2024 | 18.87% | 6.30% | -6.27% | |||||||||
| Avg | 2.50% | 12.04% | 2.21% | -3.45% | 5.57% | 1.74% | 3.49% | 2.72% | -1.70% | 5.63% | 5.97% | -3.14% |
SOBO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 2 years
SOBO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2024 to 2026
SOBO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
2 years of data
SOBO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes