Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.25% | 2.53% | -0.29% | -9.62% | -7.98% | 1.77% | -1.33% | -10.80% | -1.74% | -0.90% | ||
| 2025 | -1.49% | -1.35% | -1.36% | -0.49% | 14.78% | 1.57% | 0.64% | -0.97% | 1.93% | 0.25% | 9.40% | -1.90% |
| 2024 | 3.14% | -4.07% | 3.91% | 1.24% | 1.73% | 10.10% | 4.06% | -0.10% | -4.03% | -5.19% | -15.02% | -0.10% |
| 2023 | -0.21% | 1.98% | 5.36% | 2.38% | 13.28% | 14.02% | -1.85% | -2.05% | -0.06% | 11.21% | 7.54% | -0.99% |
| 2022 | -0.40% | -0.25% | -5.48% | -5.00% | 2.14% | -9.87% | 16.95% | 5.21% | -2.54% | 5.80% | 16.85% | 1.63% |
| 2021 | -0.69% | 0.11% | 10.80% | 1.18% | -9.59% | -3.59% | 1.43% | -4.31% | -1.14% | 4.17% | -9.52% | -0.03% |
| 2020 | -9.00% | -10.06% | 13.74% | -3.46% | 2.34% | 19.16% | 11.72% | -0.44% | -3.86% | 2.23% | 4.75% | |
| Avg | 1.27% | -1.44% | 0.41% | 0.49% | 1.56% | 2.34% | 5.58% | -0.18% | -1.15% | 2.06% | 1.91% | 0.56% |
SJ.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.6% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -1.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -33.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
SJ.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SJ.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SJ.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes