Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +14.3% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -6.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +22.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +22.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.22% | 14.62% | 42.48% | 1.28% | 3.54% | -14.21% | 12.88% | 0.59% | -8.72% | 13.74% | ||
| 2025 | -11.42% | -7.52% | 13.98% | -15.54% | 18.15% | 4.22% | 13.21% | 12.23% | -4.88% | 2.69% | 12.95% | -8.33% |
| 2024 | 10.69% | -0.42% | 20.32% | 11.96% | 15.30% | -12.16% | 0.53% | -4.32% | -12.30% | 2.12% | 15.70% | -0.18% |
| 2023 | -1.33% | -3.72% | -1.79% | -9.75% | -2.80% | -5.41% | 19.82% | -16.18% | -4.97% | -13.66% | -17.89% | -3.90% |
| 2022 | 25.71% | 3.89% | 4.53% | -9.23% | 21.16% | -31.85% | 7.79% | 13.75% | -24.18% | 11.08% | -17.27% | -11.76% |
| 2021 | 16.42% | 114.10% | -2.99% | -0.62% | 6.83% | 31.98% | -7.05% | -12.32% | 43.24% | 14.72% | 15.79% | 10.51% |
| 2020 | -20.61% | -54.81% | 10.64% | 5.77% | -14.55% | 8.51% | 33.33% | -23.53% | 0.00% | 28.85% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | 5.30% | 14.33% | 3.10% | -1.61% | 9.71% | -6.00% | 7.96% | 3.87% | -5.05% | 2.82% | 6.35% | -2.28% |
SCR.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SCR.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SCR.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SCR.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes