Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +5.4% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Nov shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Nov averages -6.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +6.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -8.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.95% | 6.20% | -1.00% | 1.62% | -3.43% | 3.93% | 6.50% | 6.41% | -9.27% | 0.09% | ||
| 2025 | 11.27% | -8.34% | -8.90% | 4.67% | 5.86% | 11.80% | -2.31% | 3.47% | 4.89% | -8.09% | -10.35% | 9.82% |
| 2024 | 1.24% | -5.29% | 5.82% | -8.17% | -5.07% | -2.15% | 10.09% | -2.38% | 3.26% | -3.39% | -2.57% | -1.68% |
| 2023 | -3.43% | -7.62% | 4.50% | -2.22% | -6.55% | -8.28% | 3.36% | -7.50% | 4.60% | 4.05% | 3.63% | -0.69% |
| 2022 | -7.95% | -7.79% | -1.01% | -11.89% | 16.43% | -0.75% | -1.38% | -4.88% | -7.58% | 3.20% | 1.20% | -5.41% |
| 2021 | -6.41% | -2.25% | -0.60% | 0.05% | -8.88% | -2.91% | 6.30% | -3.89% | 0.64% | -0.51% | -11.02% | 11.98% |
| 2020 | -3.26% | -8.91% | 18.32% | 19.38% | 12.96% | 5.31% | 17.28% | 10.92% | -1.46% | -21.11% | 18.22% | |
| Avg | -2.87% | -4.05% | -1.44% | 0.34% | 2.53% | 2.09% | 3.98% | 1.22% | 1.06% | -1.03% | -6.70% | 5.37% |
RIC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RIC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RIC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RIC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes