Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +23.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +20.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +20.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +186.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
RFA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.62% | 163.68% | 1.01% | 3.44% | 10.15% | -0.23% | -3.48% | 3.49% | -3.60% | -3.31% | ||
| 2025 | 4.62% | 1.31% | 0.92% | -5.70% | 0.13% | 6.82% | -1.71% | -2.15% | -12.26% | -2.36% | 9.68% | 21.39% |
| 2024 | -1.08% | -13.10% | 14.82% | 2.51% | 0.63% | -0.92% | 6.43% | 7.29% | 12.12% | -2.52% | 1.04% | -4.75% |
| 2023 | 5.99% | -3.79% | -15.73% | -6.83% | -0.57% | 4.76% | -3.18% | 1.43% | -7.02% | -3.85% | 0.32% | 8.98% |
| 2022 | 2.19% | 7.41% | 0.92% | 0.69% | 0.84% | -10.33% | -0.41% | -4.89% | -13.58% | 1.15% | -2.41% | -1.36% |
| 2021 | -2.11% | 8.72% | -3.20% | 0.74% | 2.86% | 1.17% | 5.17% | -1.37% | -0.96% | 3.52% | -4.97% | 11.12% |
| 2020 | 2.67% | -33.44% | 10.07% | -16.55% | 4.77% | 4.83% | 11.75% | -8.64% | 5.47% | 29.07% | -0.13% | |
| Avg | 2.04% | 23.84% | -4.96% | 0.70% | -0.36% | 0.86% | 1.09% | 2.22% | -4.85% | 0.23% | 5.46% | 5.87% |
RFA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RFA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RFA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes