Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -4.1% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.0% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
RAY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RAY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.31% | -1.96% | -5.38% | 2.01% | -3.64% | 6.03% | 5.69% | -1.35% | -1.03% | 4.24% | ||
| 2025 | 10.73% | 7.23% | 0.90% | -3.57% | -7.59% | 27.27% | 4.56% | -5.93% | 5.79% | 12.87% | 28.12% | -3.54% |
| 2024 | 13.86% | 7.17% | 4.78% | -2.22% | -4.33% | 6.76% | 10.42% | -5.32% | -7.01% | -0.96% | 11.28% | -5.27% |
| 2023 | 20.12% | 3.89% | -0.67% | -1.68% | -11.60% | 0.78% | -1.55% | 2.06% | -2.75% | -12.10% | 26.74% | 11.19% |
| 2022 | 8.17% | -4.84% | 2.11% | -8.26% | 3.85% | -9.36% | -3.23% | -6.93% | -1.45% | -9.76% | -0.05% | 1.04% |
| 2021 | 12.90% | -3.42% | 0.14% | 2.25% | -3.64% | 16.57% | -3.46% | -1.86% | -1.98% | -10.21% | 3.63% | 1.90% |
| 2020 | -14.22% | -26.25% | 8.52% | -1.79% | 26.08% | -6.83% | 12.58% | 8.62% | -3.55% | 15.11% | 1.38% | |
| Avg | 12.35% | -0.88% | -3.48% | -0.42% | -4.10% | 10.59% | 0.80% | -0.97% | 0.03% | -3.95% | 14.14% | 1.12% |
RAY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RAY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes