Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +13.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.2% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +20.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.67% | 2.32% | 8.31% | 5.51% | 6.37% | -16.21% | 0.57% | 19.52% | -5.70% | -0.22% | ||
| 2025 | -3.01% | -6.74% | 7.92% | -16.50% | 10.20% | 2.51% | -4.80% | 0.51% | 3.94% | -1.08% | 2.18% | -0.72% |
| 2024 | -8.84% | -6.11% | 14.08% | 0.06% | 5.37% | 12.63% | -11.23% | -12.53% | -5.91% | 1.05% | 5.20% | -3.03% |
| 2023 | -1.00% | -7.79% | -15.81% | -2.72% | -3.73% | 2.19% | 14.53% | 5.62% | -2.20% | -1.41% | 8.35% | 13.16% |
| 2022 | 9.27% | 2.46% | 19.22% | 5.88% | -1.23% | -8.38% | 5.41% | -9.62% | -4.32% | 9.46% | 10.92% | 0.07% |
| 2021 | 7.87% | 14.12% | -8.01% | 5.86% | -5.85% | 1.42% | -11.09% | 3.40% | 5.64% | 6.73% | 14.35% | 10.23% |
| 2020 | -6.74% | -48.04% | 21.12% | -5.15% | 5.88% | -13.88% | -6.89% | -10.26% | -2.65% | 39.61% | 10.30% | |
| Avg | 0.82% | -1.21% | -3.19% | 2.74% | 0.85% | 0.01% | -2.93% | 0.00% | -2.69% | 2.02% | 13.43% | 5.00% |
PSI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PSI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PSI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PSI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes