Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +4.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -3.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +5.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.6% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +23.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.20% | 5.96% | 5.09% | 1.54% | 1.71% | 3.16% | 4.45% | -1.43% | -4.91% | 10.88% | ||
| 2025 | -1.22% | 7.21% | 3.62% | -8.44% | -2.41% | 0.79% | 0.72% | 0.72% | 9.92% | -5.70% | 2.09% | -2.19% |
| 2024 | 1.51% | 1.99% | 2.64% | 1.32% | 4.52% | 1.63% | 5.42% | 1.46% | 3.97% | 4.48% | -0.98% | -6.74% |
| 2023 | 2.72% | -5.10% | -0.82% | 1.87% | -7.85% | 2.98% | 0.24% | 0.60% | -1.18% | 4.51% | 6.35% | 1.98% |
| 2022 | 5.75% | 7.33% | 9.47% | 3.93% | 5.36% | -10.37% | 7.93% | -4.73% | -9.10% | 7.73% | 9.69% | -5.98% |
| 2021 | 12.49% | -3.28% | 12.84% | 5.11% | 3.06% | 1.81% | 5.25% | -6.26% | 4.97% | 2.56% | -7.26% | 2.06% |
| 2020 | -4.22% | -44.85% | 21.83% | 8.41% | -0.74% | -3.50% | -0.16% | -11.86% | -0.58% | 19.51% | -8.49% | |
| Avg | 4.91% | 1.41% | -1.72% | 3.88% | 1.83% | -0.10% | 2.93% | -1.40% | -1.17% | 2.17% | 4.90% | -3.23% |
PPL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PPL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PPL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PPL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes