Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +7.5% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.26% | 26.14% | -18.46% | -6.60% | 11.12% | -19.24% | -5.06% | 19.65% | -10.05% | -13.18% | ||
| 2025 | 15.92% | 2.20% | 8.35% | -6.62% | -3.15% | 15.45% | -3.13% | 24.95% | 15.75% | -8.40% | 28.71% | 12.35% |
| 2024 | -15.86% | -7.47% | 22.25% | 24.34% | 18.77% | -9.40% | 16.73% | -13.82% | 3.75% | 15.30% | -4.16% | -6.37% |
| 2023 | 9.73% | -16.12% | 22.03% | -1.68% | -14.22% | -6.72% | 15.65% | 0.74% | -12.00% | 3.05% | 5.67% | 1.74% |
| 2022 | -12.83% | 8.98% | 14.34% | -6.65% | -12.19% | -9.09% | 3.04% | -24.53% | 12.38% | -0.96% | 2.27% | 0.05% |
| 2021 | -5.76% | 1.84% | -10.34% | 3.66% | 4.46% | -13.11% | -1.05% | -6.09% | -9.98% | 7.39% | 3.41% | -3.28% |
| 2020 | -12.46% | -23.79% | 46.17% | 37.10% | 1.83% | 21.39% | -5.78% | -9.09% | -1.10% | -9.54% | 14.86% | |
| Avg | -0.76% | 0.44% | 2.05% | 7.52% | 5.99% | -5.76% | 6.80% | -0.70% | -1.32% | 2.55% | 4.39% | 3.22% |
PAAS.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PAAS.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PAAS.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PAAS.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes