Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -22.19% | -2.85% | -7.27% | -0.68% | 6.46% | -3.11% | 13.22% | -2.70% | -6.67% | 22.66% | ||
| 2025 | 5.11% | -12.63% | -1.79% | 2.75% | 4.13% | 3.35% | 2.49% | 11.38% | 15.48% | 3.44% | -12.56% | -4.21% |
| 2024 | 5.28% | -10.41% | 0.71% | -7.52% | -17.24% | 3.01% | 5.94% | -0.65% | 4.99% | -7.24% | 2.99% | -4.60% |
| 2023 | 11.24% | 5.24% | 11.78% | -1.57% | 10.00% | -1.80% | 2.79% | -3.26% | -12.45% | -2.87% | 17.98% | 2.58% |
| 2022 | 1.33% | -9.34% | -3.41% | -2.94% | 0.76% | -5.56% | 7.58% | -21.02% | -11.06% | 8.08% | 0.10% | 2.41% |
| 2021 | -0.97% | -1.05% | 6.19% | -3.40% | -1.78% | 11.20% | 2.94% | 6.81% | -10.32% | 0.84% | -2.86% | -0.39% |
| 2020 | -5.26% | -12.44% | 6.89% | 9.21% | 0.79% | 4.58% | -1.87% | -4.51% | -13.02% | 17.12% | 1.34% | |
| Avg | -0.03% | -5.18% | -0.89% | -0.92% | 1.65% | 1.12% | 5.65% | -1.62% | -3.51% | -1.80% | 3.80% | -0.48% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -5.2% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +1.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
OTEX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
OTEX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OTEX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OTEX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes