Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.8% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -4.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +15.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -29.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.42% | 31.48% | -24.22% | -4.10% | -0.70% | -14.63% | -4.92% | 21.02% | -3.88% | -11.28% | ||
| 2025 | 9.05% | -10.60% | 24.17% | 1.67% | 25.51% | 4.86% | -1.93% | 33.41% | 18.37% | 5.59% | 14.81% | 8.15% |
| 2024 | 5.91% | -16.36% | 36.72% | -2.61% | 5.03% | 0.32% | 8.28% | 3.63% | 9.12% | 3.13% | 11.90% | -9.95% |
| 2023 | 11.63% | -3.47% | 21.14% | -7.46% | -4.84% | -11.53% | 5.75% | 6.34% | -8.90% | -12.78% | 2.59% | 6.72% |
| 2022 | -10.91% | 21.94% | 15.90% | 15.52% | -8.13% | -15.99% | -5.67% | -16.74% | 15.98% | -12.00% | 15.66% | 12.66% |
| 2021 | -8.54% | -18.22% | 1.63% | 9.63% | 26.34% | -9.27% | 3.40% | -2.88% | -12.29% | 11.59% | 0.43% | -5.17% |
| 2020 | -29.24% | -31.12% | 57.04% | 32.08% | 12.86% | 11.08% | -14.24% | -31.89% | -15.12% | -6.90% | 51.85% | |
| Avg | 3.43% | -3.50% | 6.32% | 9.95% | 10.76% | -4.77% | 2.28% | 4.36% | -1.93% | -3.26% | 6.41% | 10.71% |
OGC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OGC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OGC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
OGC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes