Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.50% | 7.99% | -2.07% | -4.33% | -2.39% | 2.50% | 2.76% | -5.54% | 2.66% | 7.55% | ||
| 2025 | 0.73% | 5.83% | 4.54% | 6.17% | 1.11% | -0.07% | -0.95% | -7.09% | -4.69% | 0.41% | 7.24% | -1.47% |
| 2024 | 2.92% | 4.61% | -1.03% | -3.16% | 3.61% | 4.35% | 8.48% | 2.97% | 1.38% | -2.89% | 10.33% | -1.18% |
| 2023 | -3.67% | -1.44% | 4.90% | 3.87% | -7.16% | 4.78% | -5.15% | -1.45% | 1.29% | 0.29% | -3.45% | 0.85% |
| 2022 | 1.00% | -2.30% | 8.77% | -1.88% | -0.67% | -1.10% | 2.63% | -2.19% | 0.13% | 3.59% | 8.39% | -3.09% |
| 2021 | -2.68% | -3.86% | 8.37% | -1.76% | 3.29% | 2.61% | 8.87% | -0.28% | -3.70% | 1.02% | -2.10% | 10.43% |
| 2020 | -2.70% | 8.86% | 0.63% | 0.64% | -2.47% | 4.93% | 0.27% | 8.85% | -2.38% | -4.01% | -4.79% | |
| Avg | -1.70% | 1.16% | 4.62% | -0.07% | -0.22% | 1.51% | 3.08% | -1.90% | 0.85% | 0.01% | 2.73% | 0.13% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +4.6% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -1.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +4.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
MRU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MRU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MRU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MRU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes