Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -9.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.04% | 9.95% | -6.16% | 11.98% | -2.44% | 5.71% | -8.42% | -5.89% | -3.02% | 3.18% | ||
| 2025 | 1.86% | 0.91% | 0.11% | 2.89% | 4.34% | 0.78% | 4.27% | 8.04% | 0.84% | -1.01% | 2.38% | 3.90% |
| 2024 | 2.33% | 1.84% | -2.74% | -0.70% | 3.39% | 2.14% | 5.59% | 3.06% | 4.89% | 1.50% | 7.89% | -5.39% |
| 2023 | 4.47% | 4.28% | -6.05% | 1.67% | 4.59% | -1.52% | 4.95% | 0.81% | -4.68% | -0.13% | 3.18% | 4.35% |
| 2022 | 0.81% | 8.12% | 1.99% | -0.73% | 2.20% | -5.57% | -3.46% | -1.05% | -6.86% | 2.75% | 4.34% | -1.63% |
| 2021 | -1.20% | 9.44% | 3.67% | 7.53% | -0.06% | -0.36% | -0.40% | 7.08% | -0.59% | 1.72% | -4.75% | 0.77% |
| 2020 | -3.26% | -22.21% | 0.16% | 2.87% | 3.40% | 8.14% | -0.07% | 0.48% | -0.89% | 22.95% | -1.42% | |
| Avg | 1.37% | 4.47% | -4.48% | 3.26% | 2.13% | 0.65% | 1.52% | 1.71% | -1.28% | 0.65% | 6.00% | 0.10% |
MKP.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MKP.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MKP.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MKP.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes