Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.87% | 24.52% | -9.67% | 11.28% | 4.17% | 4.38% | 3.09% | -4.67% | -0.37% | -1.29% | ||
| 2025 | -4.09% | -7.35% | -7.17% | -2.06% | 5.41% | 5.66% | 7.94% | 12.16% | 4.60% | 0.49% | 4.24% | 6.99% |
| 2024 | -2.40% | -1.27% | -1.32% | -10.83% | -5.36% | -7.01% | 6.85% | -6.47% | -2.05% | -0.92% | 17.01% | -5.58% |
| 2023 | 13.57% | -11.23% | -4.81% | -2.42% | -6.20% | 13.87% | 13.40% | -5.51% | -8.42% | -8.45% | 10.69% | 7.01% |
| 2022 | 0.06% | -7.49% | -14.77% | -3.54% | 6.87% | -13.89% | 15.69% | -6.56% | -13.63% | 15.86% | 9.90% | -8.17% |
| 2021 | -0.06% | 19.02% | 3.76% | 4.88% | 3.10% | -3.67% | -8.86% | -4.25% | -4.33% | 5.61% | -4.42% | 6.89% |
| 2020 | -8.94% | -25.87% | 20.77% | 8.13% | 4.13% | 2.40% | 3.40% | -4.08% | 11.65% | 17.83% | 13.15% | |
| Avg | 0.37% | 1.04% | -8.55% | 2.58% | 2.30% | 0.50% | 5.79% | -1.70% | -4.04% | 4.04% | 9.21% | 3.38% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.6% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +26.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
MG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes